Daniil Gorbatenko (citizen_global) wrote,
Daniil Gorbatenko

Climate Gate должен был случиться раньше

Оказывается, скандал по поводу деятельности Майкла Манна должен был произойти уже давно.

Вот что выявило по поводу его "хоккейной клюшки" (вывода о том, что имевшее место в 20 веке потепление является наибольшим за последние 1000 лет) расследование, иницииованное Конгрессом США (см.
показания перед Конгрессом главы комиссии по расследованию Эдварда Вегмана):

1. О том, какой статистический трюк был использован Манном и Ко, чтобы добиться желаемого эффекта (это вам разбирающиеся люди объяснят):

The proxy data exhibiting the hockey stick shape are actually decentered low. The updated MBH99 reconstruction [спорная работа Манна и Ко с "хоккейной клюшкой"] is given in Figure 3 [все графики можно посмотреть в тексте показаний Вегмана по ссылке выше]. This fact that the proxies are centered low is apparent in Figure 3 because for most of the 1000 years, the reconstruction is below zero. Because the ‘hockey stick’ proxies are centered too low, they will exhibit a larger effective ‘variance’, allowing the method to exhibit a preference for selecting them as the first principal component. The net effect of this decentering using the proxy data in MBH98 and MBH99 is to produce a ‘hockey stick’ shape. Centering on the overall mean is a critical factor in using the principal component methodology properly.

2. Об искажении процесса реферирования (о группе из 43 дружественных ученых-ревьюеров):

We found that at least 43 authors have direct ties to Dr. Mann by virtue of coauthored papers with him. Our findings from this analysis suggest that authors in the area of this relatively narrow field of paleoclimate studies are closely connected. Dr. Mann has an unusually large reach in terms of influence and in particular Drs. Jones, Bradley, Hughes, Briffa, Rutherford and Osborn.

Because of these close connections, independent studies may not be as independent as they might appear on the surface. Although we have no direct data on the functioning of peer review within the paleoclimate community, but with 35 years of experience with peer review in both journals as well as evaluation of research proposals, peer review may not have been as independent as would generally be desirable.

Figure 8 [см. текст показаний по ссылке выше] is a graphic that depicts a number of papers in the paleoclimate reconstruction area together with some of the proxies used. We note that many of the proxies are shared. Using the same data also suggests a lack of independence.

3. Вывод расследования (что выоды Манна и Ко несостоятельны):

The MBH98/99 work has been sufficiently politicized that this community can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility. Overall, our committee believes that the MBH99 assessment that the decade of the 1990s was the likely the hottest decade of the millennium and that 1998 was likely the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by their analysis.

Рекомендации комиссии Вегмана (привлечение к анализу выводов климатологов профессиональных статистиков, необходимость формирования междисциплинарных, а не узкоспециализированных (например, на палеоклиматологии) исследовательских групп, более строгая проверка выводов климатологов через усиление реферирования), к сожалению, судя по всему, были проигнорированы.


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